Livestock early warning systems: Translational ecology to improve risk management decision-making in pastoral regions

Background/Question/Methods

Pastoralists in developing countries are faced with increasingly-complex risk management decisions brought about by more variable climatic conditions, a shrinking land base, and rangeland degradation.  Decisions regarding livestock movement and stocking/de-stocking may require near real-time information, especially in the face of drought or winter disasters (in colder climates).  Forage quantity assessments and surveys of livestock water availability are almost impossible to conduct over large land areas on a near real-time basis because of logistical and time constraints. Thus, the information needed for livestock herd decisions is not always available when it is needed most.   The inability to make herd management decisions at critical times could lead to vegetation overuse, which in turn, can lead to rangeland degradation.   

Improved computing capacity, combined with greater accessibility of climate and remote sensing data, have increased capabilities for conducting near real-time monitoring in rangeland ecosystems.  Since 1999, our team has worked to develop livestock early warning systems that use simulation modeling and remote sensing to provide near real-time assessments and short term forecasts of livestock forage conditions in East Africa, Mongolia, and most recently in Afghanistan.  Important goals of this program are to disseminate the early warning information as widely as possible and to translate the complex model outputs into forms that are understandable to pastoralists and other stakeholders.

Results/Conclusions

Initial efforts for translational products included development of forage anomaly maps that illustrated how current and 60-day forecast conditions deviated from long-term average conditions.  For each early warning anomaly class, descriptions of conditions and appropriate risk management suggestions were developed.  These formed the basis for production of situation reports that were distributed twice per month via internet, email, regular mail, and in some cases, as satellite radio downloads.  Additional efforts have included development of bulletins for radio broadcasts, and maps and situation reports for newspapers.   Collaborations and partnerships with government ministries, non-governmental organizations, and community groups have aided in the communication and distribution of early warning information. 

One overarching result of this work has been that livestock forage, although extremely important, is only one component of the risk management decision making in these pastoral regions.  We have since worked to develop other early warning modules that include water availability and market price information.  Future work will focus on development of smart phone and mobile GIS technologies to provide location-based information retrieval that will be important for adaptive management in these environments.