Long-term wildlife and climate trends in Aberdare National Park, Kenya

Background/Question/Methods

In 2004 the Aberdare Range ecosystem received international recognition as a “tropical wilderness hotspot” by the Global Conservation Fund (Patton and Jones, 2007). The Aberdare Range is not only a crucial environment for biodiversity but also acts as one of Kenya’s five major water catchments and supplies most of the water and electricity for Nairobi, a city of more than three million people. Over the last decades, Aberdare’s forests have been the focus of large scale illegal exploitation, primarily from charcoal production and logging of indigenous trees (Lambrechts, 2000). The Kenya Wildlife Service, in conjunction with the local NGO Rhino Ark, has called for immediate action along with long-term goals to prevent further loss of biodiversity and water security (Lambrechts, 2000). But how drastically have biodiversity and rainfall changed in the past decades? I traveled to the Aberdares to gather wildlife and rainfall data from record books at two wildlife lodges in the national park. Through synthesis and analysis of this data, I aim to show how wildlife sightings have changed over the past fifty years as well as map any changes in rainfall patterns. These patterns will be correlated with land-use change data and changes in park policies.

Results/Conclusions

The analyses of the wildlife data show that there have been significant changes in wildlife sightings at the species level from 1960 to the present. Some standout species include bongos, elephants, buffalos, leopards, hyenas, and giant forest hogs. Bongos were regularly seen in the 1970’s and throughout the 1980’s. However, there has not been a bongo sighting in the last fifteen years and sightings exponentially decreased throughout the examined timespan. Elephant and buffalo group sizes as well as total number seen per year have also significantly increased. Giant forest hogs sightings have seen resurgence over the past two decades; this may be correlated with the removal of lions from the park in the early 2000’s. Preliminary analyses of climate data show that there is two yearly rainy seasons and that rainfall has not significantly changed in the past ten years. Further data analyses will be carried out to see if this trend continues for the entire fifty year dataset. I predict the data will show us that many of the changes in wildlife sightings can be correlated with changes in park policy and the onset of rapid land-use change surrounding the park due to intensified agricultural practices.