Estimation of management uncertainty for marine fisheries in the southeastern United States

Background/Question/Methods

The ability to accurately estimate the likely impacts of management actions is critical for all natural resource management and is highly dependent on our understanding of population ecology. With marine fisheries, estimates of what catches will be in a given year can be compared to estimates of what catches actually were, allowing for a comparison of pre- to postseason estimates. This difference is considered management uncertainty. Management regulations are required to take into account management uncertainty, prescribing more precaution when management uncertainty is high. This study compared preseason catch estimates of managed fish species in the Southeast to postseason estimates. In addition, it investigated whether the magnitude of management uncertainty appeared related to the type of fishery, regulation, or life history of the species involved.

Results/Conclusions

Results indicate that the magnitude of management uncertainty may be greater than previously suggested. It appears that recreational fisheries may have greater management uncertainty than commercial fisheries. In addition, when pre-season catches are estimated years into the future, as is often the case in setting regulation, management uncertainty increases over the time series. The study uncovered the additional problem that documentation of methodology used to determine preseason catch estimates is often not sufficient to repeat the estimation procedure.

Recommendations from this study have the potential to improve our management of fisheries, benefiting both the resource and the resource users.