Climate change, prey availability and managed relocations: Mitigating extinction risk for Iberian Lynx, the world’s most threatened cat

Background/Question/Methods

The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) and its staple prey, European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), are endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. Both species have suffered severe population and range size declines in the second half of the 20^th century. Forecasts of future climate change, in synergy with ongoing human impacts, are predicted to cause additional range loss for lynx and rabbits, further threatening the persistence of the world’s most endangered feline. Using ensembles of bioclimatic models coupled to metapopulation simulations, we investigate the combined effects of climate change, prey availability and management intervention on the long-term persistence of lynx.

Results/Conclusions

By explicitly modelling biotic interactions and developing a software application that ranks potential managed relocation sites according to future suitability, we provide an advanced method for modelling predator range dynamics under climate change and exploring alternative conservation actions. Under a present day management scenario, the risk of extinction for Iberian lynx during this century is high. While existing breeding programmes and reintroduction plans promote the persistence of lynx (at least in the near term), we demonstrate that a carefully planned relocation strategy, accounting simultaneously for the effects of climate change, prey availability and habitat connectivity, will need to be implemented by conservation agencies.