Applying a framework for climate change adaptation in the Central Hardwoods region

Background/Question/Methods

The Climate Change Response Framework was created to help adapt forests to new and changing climate conditions. This Framework was first developed for northern Wisconsin, and is now being applied to the Central Hardwoods of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.  The major objectives of the Framework are to develop partnerships between and among the science and management communities, assess climate change vulnerabilities, and provide tools to apply climate change information in forest management.  In this application of the Framework, science-management partners developed an assessment of climate change vulnerabilities across the Central Hardwoods region under a range of future climate scenarios. The assessment used both dynamic and species distribution modeling to determine future habitat suitability of tree species in the region. A comprehensive literature review assessed the effects of climate change on disturbance processes, hydrology, and associated forest species in the area. An expert panel then determined implications of the model results and literature review for terrestrial ecosystems in the Central Hardwoods. 

Results/Conclusions

Preliminary results indicate that both modeling approaches tend to show an increase in habitat suitability of southern pine species and a decrease in suitability of northern hardwood species in the assessment area. This indicates a possible shift toward oak-pine systems in some areas over the next century, depending on what management actions are taken in the interim and on interactions with other stressors such as fire, species invasions, and pathogens.  Building upon this new information, a set of resources will be developed to help managers incorporate climate change considerations into management and devise management tactics.