Sociality determines persistence of populations suffering from a novel fungal disease, white-nose syndrome

Background/Question/Methods

Disease has caused striking declines in wildlife on several continents and threatens numerous species with extinction. Theory suggests that ecology of transmission dynamics can determine the probability of disease-caused extinction, but few empirical studies have examined factors that influence impacts of disease on populations.

Results/Conclusions

We show that differences sociality of hibernating bats can influence the scaling of disease impact with population size and thus the risk of extinction from a recently emerged fungal pathogen. In socially gregarious species, declines were equally severe in populations spanning four orders of magnitude, whereas in more solitary species, declines were less severe in smaller populations. Changes in sociality in declining populations may reduce the likelihood of extinction. For some species, roost microclimates (temperature and humidity) also affected severity of declines. These results provide an empirical basis for determining which host species are likely to be driven extinct while management action is still possible.