The niche in a changing world: Improving niche modeling to plan for the future

Background/Question/Methods

The niche describes the ecological requirements of a species and the role that species plays in its environment. This concept has been hotly debated for decades, but has never been as important as today. Facing drastic global climate change, it is urgent that we understand what species need to survive in order to preserve biodiversity. The field of niche modeling has developed as a result. Researchers in this field use experimental and physiological studies of species, as well as knowledge about the current distribution of species, to try to predict what habitat will be accessible to these species under likely climate change scenarios. Unfortunately, important aspects of the species niche are often ignored. These include biotic interactions, abilities of species to disperse to new areas, flexibility and adaptability of the species niche, and aspects of the fundamental niche of the species that are not currently known.

Results/Conclusions

We suggest ways to improve niche models and thus our ability to plan for a changing world. One way to improve our models is listening to the experience of naturalists and focusing on aspects of the niche they think are most important, rather than using the data that are easiest to obtain. We then point out sources of data that are often ignored in niche models, but are easy to obtain, and might improve our predictive ability. We review how understanding the fossil record of a species can enable us to predict whether it is likely to track climate or adapt in situ. We make suggestions for using paleontological data to build niche models and test their predictions. Finally, we review the future of niche modeling and how we will use it to plan for the future.