Niche models tell half the story: How life history traits, fire, and climate change interact

Background/Question/Methods

While niche models are typically used to assess species vulnerability to climate change, they have been criticized for their limited assessment of threats other than climate change. We attempt to evaluate this limitation by combining niche models with life history models to investigate the relative influence of climate change and a range of fire regimes on the viability of Leucopogon setiger.

Results/Conclusions

Altered fire regime, in particular more frequent fires relative to the historic regime, was predicted to be the main threat to this species, which may reflect a vulnerability of obligate seeders in general. Range shifts induced by climate change were a secondary threat when habitat reductions were predicted. Incorporating life history traits into habitat suitability models by linking species distribution models with population models allowed for the population-level evaluation of multiple stressors that affect population dynamics and habitat, ultimately providing a greater understanding of global change impacts than would be gained by niche models alone. Further investigations of this type could elucidate how particular bioecological factors can affect certain types of species under global change, and help inform conservation efforts.