OOS 20 - Recent Advances In Individual-Based Population Modeling with Applications to Conservation and Management

Tuesday, August 7, 2012: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
C124, Oregon Convention Center
Organizer:
Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA
Co-organizer:
Chad B. Wilsey, National Audubon Society
Moderator:
Allen Brookes, US Environmental Protection Agency
Applications of conservation biology and landscape ecology often involve forecasting plant and animal responses to future conditions. Forecasting necessitates modeling, and the constraints imposed by available models have limited the scope and realism of past research. Consider the need to evaluate how pesticides impact a population declining due to habitat loss and invasive species; or to explore ways to mitigate the spread of a zoonotic disease while accounting for climate change; or to design reserve strategies that ensure both demographic and genetic connectivity. Such questions have in common the need to evaluate multiple interacting natural and anthropogenic stressors that vary across time and space. Critical drivers can be biotic or abiotic, and involve competition, predation, parasitism or other complex interactions. Future research will benefit from the availability of scientifically rigorous models that can incorporate a wide range of interacting processes in a dynamic and spatially explicit environment. The presentations in this organized session will describe case studies that illustrate how the newly developed HexSim model is beginning to stimulate novel research into such systems. Our speakers will cover a range of topics including spotted owl conservation, elk management, the effects of cowbird management on black-capped vireos, the nontarget impacts of rodenticides on endangered San Joaquin kit foxes, the spread of chytrid fungus through frog populations, and population dynamics of the desert tortoise. Each of these presentations will highlight different aspects of the HexSim model, and illustrate how the it can be used to quantify the impacts of multiple interacting stressors on wildlife populations.
1:30 PM
 Using HexSim to simulate complex species, landscape, and stressor interactions
Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA; Allen Brookes, US Environmental Protection Agency; Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research; Patrick Huber, University of California, Davis; Theresa Nogeire, University of Washington; Peter Singleton, USDA Forest Service; Michael Tuma, SWCA Environmental Consultants / University of Southern California; Chad B. Wilsey, National Audubon Society; Gisselle Yang Xie, Oregon State University
1:50 PM
 Modeling interactions between spotted owl and barred owl populations in fire-prone forests
Peter H. Singleton, USDA Forest Service; Bruce G. Marcot, USDA Forest Service; John F. Lehmkuhl, USDA Forest Service; Martin G. Raphael, USDA Forest Service; Rebecca S.H. Kennedy, USDA Forest Service; Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA
2:10 PM
 Simulating the effects of land-use, climate change, and management on an endangered species
Chad B. Wilsey, National Audubon Society; Joshua J. Lawler, University of Washington
2:30 PM
 Impacts of habitat loss, climate change and pesticide exposure on kit fox populations
Theresa M. Nogeire, University of Washington; Joshua J. Lawler, University of Washington; Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA; Brian L. Cypher, California State University; Scott E. Phillips, California State University
2:50 PM
 Graph-based analysis of connectivity in spatially-explicit population models: HexSim and the Connectivity Analysis Toolkit
Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research; Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA
3:10 PM
3:20 PM
 The development of a spatially-explicit, individual-based, disease model for amphibians and the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis
Gisselle Yang Xie, Oregon State University; Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA; Allen Brookes, US Environmental Protection Agency; Andrew R. Blaustein, Oregon State University
3:40 PM
 Modeling population response to anthropogenic threats for a long-lived reptile, the desert tortoise
Michael Tuma, SWCA Environmental Consultants / University of Southern California; Chris Millington, SWCA Environmental Consultants; Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA; Paul Burnett, SWCA Environmental Consultants
4:00 PM
 Using HexSim to assess potential reintroduction sitesĀ for a native ungulate
Patrick R. Huber, University of California, Davis; Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA; Steven E. Greco, University of California, Davis; Joe Hobbs, California Department of Fish and Game
4:20 PM
 Integrating species distributional, conservation planning, and individual based population models: A case study in conservation network evaluation for the northern spotted owl
Jeffrey R. Dunk, Humboldt State University; Brian Woodbridge, United States Fish and Wildlife Service; Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA; Elizabeth M. Glenn, United States Fish and Wildlife Service; David W. LaPlante, Natural Resource Geospatial; Brendan White, United States Fish and Wildlife Service
4:40 PM
 New developments in computer modeling advance ecological realism of landscape genetics simulations
Jennifer Day, University of Washington; Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA; Allen Brookes, US Environmental Protection Agency; Brad McRae, The Nature Conservancy
See more of: Organized Oral Session