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OOS 20 -
Recent Advances In Individual-Based Population Modeling with Applications to Conservation and Management
Tuesday, August 7, 2012: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
C124, Oregon Convention Center
Organizer:
Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA
Co-organizer:
Chad B. Wilsey, National Audubon Society
Moderator:
Allen Brookes, US Environmental Protection Agency
Applications of conservation biology and landscape ecology often involve forecasting plant and animal responses to future conditions. Forecasting necessitates modeling, and the constraints imposed by available models have limited the scope and realism of past research. Consider the need to evaluate how pesticides impact a population declining due to habitat loss and invasive species; or to explore ways to mitigate the spread of a zoonotic disease while accounting for climate change; or to design reserve strategies that ensure both demographic and genetic connectivity. Such questions have in common the need to evaluate multiple interacting natural and anthropogenic stressors that vary across time and space. Critical drivers can be biotic or abiotic, and involve competition, predation, parasitism or other complex interactions. Future research will benefit from the availability of scientifically rigorous models that can incorporate a wide range of interacting processes in a dynamic and spatially explicit environment. The presentations in this organized session will describe case studies that illustrate how the newly developed HexSim model is beginning to stimulate novel research into such systems. Our speakers will cover a range of topics including spotted owl conservation, elk management, the effects of cowbird management on black-capped vireos, the nontarget impacts of rodenticides on endangered San Joaquin kit foxes, the spread of chytrid fungus through frog populations, and population dynamics of the desert tortoise. Each of these presentations will highlight different aspects of the HexSim model, and illustrate how the it can be used to quantify the impacts of multiple interacting stressors on wildlife populations.
1:30 PM
Using HexSim to simulate complex species, landscape, and stressor interactions
Nathan H. Schumaker, US EPA;
Allen Brookes, US Environmental Protection Agency;
Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research;
Patrick Huber, University of California, Davis;
Theresa Nogeire, University of Washington;
Peter Singleton, USDA Forest Service;
Michael Tuma, SWCA Environmental Consultants / University of Southern California;
Chad B. Wilsey, National Audubon Society;
Gisselle Yang Xie, Oregon State University
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