OOS 30-2
Using a species distribution model and traits to assess tree species vulnerability and adaptability under climate change in the U.S. Northwoods and Central Hardwoods

Thursday, August 8, 2013: 1:50 PM
101F, Minneapolis Convention Center
Louis Iverson, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH
Stephen N. Matthews, School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
Anantha Prasad, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH
Matthew P. Peters, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH
Background/Question/Methods

The climate is changing.  Tree species at any given location are currently under risk of their habitat changing (increasing, decreasing or staying the same).  The degree of change depends on their location relative to their overall range, their particular ecological traits, and the severity of the changing conditions.  We attempt to assess species vulnerability, and their capacity to adapt to a changing climate, in two regions of the eastern U.S., the Northwoods of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and the Central Hardwoods of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. To do so, we use a series of modeling schemes using species distribution models (called DISTRIB) and life history traits (called Modification Factors, or ModFacs). This approach provides clear inference to potential vulnerabilities of the extant tree species composition. 

Results/Conclusions

The results provide a comprehensive assessment of an assessment area, by presenting location-specific considerations of potential climate change impacts, and making these data readily useable for deliberation of management actions.  Specifically, they include a series of tables and maps describing suitable habitat for years ending 1990, 2040, 2070, and 2100 for 70-80 species in each of the six states representing the Northwoods and Central Hardwoods. For example, northern Wisconsin had eight major species which were modeled to have  large decreases in habitat by 2100 (including sugar maple, quaking aspen, balsam fir, and paper birch), along with 18 species which showed large increases in habitat (including boxelder, bur oak, white oak, and black oak). Farther south in southern Indiana, the large decreasers included eight species such as sugar maple, American beech, black cherry and white ash, while the ten increaser species included southern red oak, blackjack oak, loblolly pine, and shortleaf pine. Each species was also scored for adaptability to cope with increasing climate-related disturbances, based on a literature review of nine biological characteristics and 12 disturbance capacities; these ‘ModFacs’ allowed for more reality in interpretation of the species distribution model outputs and allowed better assessment of likely outcomes via the species’ inherent adaptive capacity to change.