The balance of greenhouse gases in the terrestrial biosphere: can we predict large-scale and long-term patterns from short-term plot level observations?

We are faced with a plethora of large-scale environmental problems, most of which are not amenable to direct experimentation.  Spatially-explicit, process-based ecosystem modeling approach is now playing a crucial role in synthesizing a huge quantity of data, conducting cross-scale extrapolation, analyzing multiple-factor interactions, and predicting large-scale ecological patterns and processes in a changing global environment. In this study, we have integrated a spatially-explicit, coupled biogeochemical model with multiple sources of data to explore the magnitude, spatial and temporal patterns of major greenhouse gas fluxes (CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) in the terrestrial biosphere and uncertainties associated with spatial and temporal scaling.