Representativeness-based sampling network design for the Arctic

Background/Question/Methods

Resource and logistical constraints limit the frequency and extent of environmental observations, particularly in the Arctic, necessitating the development of a systematic sampling strategy to maximize coverage and objectively represent environmental variability at desired scales. Required is a quantitative methodology for stratifying sampling domains, informing site selection, and determining the representativeness of measurement sites and networks. Multivariate spatiotemporal clustering was applied to down-scaled general circulation model results and data for the State of Alaska at 2 km x 2 km resolution to define multiple sets of bioclimatic ecoregions across two decadal time periods.

Results/Conclusions

Maps of ecoregions for the present (2000-2009) and future (2090-2099) were produced, showing how combinations of 37 bioclimatic characteristics are distributed and how they may shift in the future. Representative sampling locations are identified on present and future ecoregion maps. A representativeness metric was developed, and representativeness maps for eight candidate sampling locations were produced. This metric was used to characterize the environmental similarity of each site. This analysis provides model-inspired insights into optimal sampling strategies, offers a framework for up-scaling measurements, and provides a down-scaling approach for integration of models and measurements. These techniques can be applied at different spatial and temporal scales to meet the needs of individual measurement campaigns.