Potential impact of climate change on 63 Galliformes species in China: differences in species with different phylogeny

Background/Question/Methods

Climate change would cause range shift of many species in the future. Galliformes may be particularly vulnerable to climate change because they have low dispersal ability. There are 63 Galliformes species in China, including 23 endemic species. Their distribution patterns can be classified as four types: 1. ranges of 26 species in nine genera are adjacent yet not overlaid; 2. ranges of 17 species in three genera are half overlaid; 3. ranges of five species in two genera are totally overlaid; and 4. ranges of six species in three genera are far apart. We used generalized linear models and random forest to predict the future ranges of all 63 Galliformes in China, based on five climate variables using the CGCM2 climate model A2a emission scenario for 2071-2100.

Results/Conclusions

We projected that 29 species would have range shifts over 50% in the future (2071-2100), including 13 endemic species. Northward shifts are more than those to other directions. Species whose ranges are adjacent yet not overlaid have similar range shift patterns. These species may have a short evolution history because their ranges are neither mixed nor far apart. Their requirements for climate conditions are similar. Other species have diverse range shift patterns.