The fate of CRP lands after contract expiration: 2010-2012

Background/Question/Methods

Created by the 1985 Farm Bill, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) provides rent payments to agricultural landowners in exchange for the establishment of perennial cover, with demonstrated benefits for wildlife, soil, water and air quality. Despite these benefits, there is growing anecdotal evidence that land is being returned to intensive agriculture once contracts expire, prompted in part by record high commodity prices. However, much of the land eligible in CRP may only be marginally productive, and so the amount of land actually being converted is unclear. Here, to provide a quantitative estimate, we used a geospatial dataset of over one million CRP polygons for twelve U.S. Midwestern and Plains states, comparing expired parcels with the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Cropland Data Layer.  We tabulated the areal proportion of each expired CRP polygon in corn, soy or winter wheat production over a three-year period, 2010-2012.  Spring wheat and sorghum were also included for limited areas within the same region.

Results/Conclusions

Overall, we estimate that approximately 29.5%, or more than 337,000 hectares, of expiring CRP land was converted to these five crops over the three-year study period in this region. On a per area basis, the environmental impacts of this conversion likely exceed that of intensification on currently cultivated land. CRP wetland restorations have been converted, along with native grassland cover and designated wildlife habitat. Utilizing state-specific chemical input rates, we also estimate that nitrogen, phosphorus and pesticide applications have increased due to this shift in land-cover by more than 53,000, 10,200 and 1,100 metric tons, respectively, over the three years in the twelve-state region. Though a conservation success story, the environmental benefits of CRP may be compromised by high commodity prices into the foreseeable future and net declines in enrolled lands. This concern is underscored by our analysis, which finds expired CRP land returning to intensive crop production at ecologically relevant rates.