Linking climate, biodiversity and wildlife tourism in African national parks – a quantitative approach

Background/Question/Methods

Linking climatic factors to biodiversity and to ecosystem functions is critical for projecting future impacts of climate change on ecosystem services. Previous studies have focused on single relationships or on qualitative assessments. Here, we develop a quantitative model that incorporates multiple relationships of climate, biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services. African savannahs harbour a unique diversity of large mammals e.g. ungulates and large predators. These savannahs also provide an important cultural ecosystem service, wildlife tourism. Savannah national parks with high densities of large mammals are the basis of this wildlife tourism. Wildlife is supposed to attract tourists, thus a positive relationship between large mammal densities and tourist numbers can be expected. To better understand and to test the relationship between climatic factors, vegetation, large mammals and tourism we use path analysis at two different spatial scales: 1) at the large spatial scale we use census data and visitor statistics across 64 national parks in eastern and southern Africa. 2) At the regional scale in Kruger National Park, South Africa we simultaneously counted large mammals and tourist vehicles along 78 road transects and assessed visibility and vegetation parameters. Further we interviewed park visitors to consider their actual experiences.

Results/Conclusions

Path models at the large scale (n=64) confirmed our hypotheses that climatic factors have significant effects with high temperatures decreasing and high rainfall increasing ungulate densities, predator densities and therefore tourist numbers. Indirect effects of climatic factors on predators and tourists via ungulates are highly significant and more important than direct effects. Still, we could reveal a negative direct impact of temperature on tourists. Results at the regional scale suggest a high importance of open waterholes and rivers in close proximity for the accumulation of large mammals; in these areas many tourist vehicles were counted as well. At the regional scale we could identify more local factors as waterholes or vegetation density (i.e. bush encroachment) which are not available at the large scale. Interview results indicate that visitors are mainly interested in seeing big cats and the “Big Five”.

The results suggest that climate change might have severe consequences on large mammal densities and thus on tourist numbers. Many regions in eastern and southern Africa heavily rely on wildlife tourism as main income source. To secure wildlife tourism and human well-being, it is therefore crucial to conserve Africa’s large mammals and to mitigate climate change impacts e.g. via adapted park management.