Predicting climate change impacts on urban plant’s present probability using Bayesian model

Background/Question/Methods

The threats of climate change on urban woody plants remains difficult to predict in urban ecosystem. Depending on its tolerances, a plant species may present or present with slowly declining populations under a changing climate. Sustainability of urban ecosystem can be partially assessed by measuring urban plant’s present probability in future. To assess present probability of plants, species-specific bioclimate envelop can be utilized. However, most of the bioclimatic envelop models are limited to directly assess the impacts of extreme climate events that are fundamental risks of plant’s survival. For that reason, this study aims to develop bayesian model based on bioclimate variables including impacts on extreme climate events under different management options. Considered bioclimatic variables were GDD, minimum temperature, chilling requirement and water balance, and it were calculated by surveying current plant distribution range. Moreover, warm winter, fall and winter drought, and spring frost were considered as extreme climate events due to expert interview and existed data. Overall present probabilities were calculated from o to l values.

Results/Conclusions

The model illustrated that Zelkova serrata, Pinus densiflora and Pinus koraiensis were predicted to have higher present probability values of 0.4. On the other hand, Taxus cuspidata and Ulmus davidiana var. japonica were shown to have lower values of the present probability, at 0.1 and 0.2, respectively. Under frost management, Camelia japonica was available to present from 2070 to 2090 years. Moreover, with drought management, pinus densiflora and pinus koraiensis could present until 2060 years. Meanwhile, Taxus cuspidata and Ulmus davidiana var. japonica were hard to apply appropriate management options to solve heat stress in changing climate. For that reason, this result illustrates the fact that the increasing heat stress acclimation of subpolar plants will execute severe growth problems in the near future. Meanwhile, temperate plants and subtropical plants were available to increase survival lifespans under the appropriate management. The results of the model can be used to hypothesize how urban ecosystems can change over time and can also be used to establish selection and management guidelines for urban plants under a changing climate.