Future benefits achieved through cooperative and sustainable forest management practices designed in a landscape context using multi-scale scenario modeling

Background/Question/Methods

There is growing recognition that habitat and at-risk species conservation practices must be carefully designed within a landscape context in order to be successful. Developing effective landscape conservation strategies must consider not only habitat management within the boundaries of protected public lands, but also the past trends and stressors operating across the entire landscape.  In consideration of past trends and future stressors (e.g., climate change), what are the best strategies for conserving habitat and at-risk species at a landscape scale? The objective of this study is to test an array of past and future conservation and management strategies (e.g., preservation, sustainable forest management [SFM], and climate adaptation) for conserving forest habitat and enhancing ecological services across West Virginia using an integrated, multi-scale model. The integrated model was developed using Forest Service field data collected from 1,500 forest plots, socioeconomic and biophysical models, and Monte Carlo simulation. The model tracks forest ecosystem indicator metrics for habitat recovery (e.g., old growth forest metrics, biomass, and stand structure) and ecological services (e.g., carbon and timber value) from 2000 to 2050. The model simulates biophysical processes and complex cross-scale feedback mechanisms across six spatial scales (from individual trees to the international timber market).

Results/Conclusions

The scenario analysis indicates that implementation of cooperative SFM practices significantly outperforms status quo forest management in terms of habitat quality and ecological services. When climate adaptation strategies are coupled with SFM practices, then forest ecosystem metrics are significantly enhanced.  Climate adaptation strategies involve cooperative partnership efforts to reduce drought stress in the system and harmonize disturbance profiles between climate stress and commercial timbering on private and public lands, both spatially and temporally. The climate adaptation and SFM practices generate a net increase of $5.4 billion in ecological services across the state by 2050, and 15% to 30% increases in forest ecosystem metrics above status quo forest management, while still generating the same volume of timber for the commercial market.  Preserving the highest quality forests on public and private lands from any type of timbering disturbance significantly improved metrics for protected forests, but with reduced habitat quality on unprotected lands (relative to status quo) and mixed results at the state-scale. Overall, the study illustrates the benefits achieved through cooperative and SFM practices designed in a landscape context and the utility of scenario modeling, which address system-level dynamics and multiple stressors operating at several spatial scales, including climate change.