How does forest management focused on mitigating climate change affect avian species?

Background/Question/Methods

Climate change is projected to have direct and indirect affects on avian abundance across the globe. Species associated with forest ecosystems present a unique challenge to land managers trying to balance species conservation and forest management focused on mitigating the effects of climate change. Using a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we modeled current land cover and climate relationships across a suite of avian species with varying habitat requirements. Simulated landscapes were developed under a range of climate (current conditions, PCM-B1, GFDL-A1FI, Hadley-A1FI), and forest management scenarios focused on mitigating climate change (response/adaptation, resilience, carbon sequestration). We made predictions of future avian abundance based on simulations produced by a forest landscape model (LANDIS PRO) within the Missouri Ozark Highlands. The goal of this study was to assess the potential changes in avian abundance across a range of climate and forest management scenarios projected 100 years into the future.

Results/Conclusions

Preliminary results suggest direct forest management activities have a larger influence on avian abundance compared with effects of climate only. Also, birds associated with forest edge were more directly affected by climate change, but not as strong as habitat-specific effects. We hypothesize this result is due to increased exposure to weather extremes across forest ecotones. Our results highlight the positive and negative consequences to a suite of avian species associated with management prescriptions focused on mitigating the effects of climate change.