Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic pathogens

Background/Question/Methods

Mammals are important reservoirs of zoonotic infectious diseases. Among mammals, rodents are hypothesized to pose a disproportionate disease threat to human populations. What traits discriminate rodents that are zoonotic reservoirs from non-reservoirs? Are there geographic hotspots of zoonotic rodent reservoirs? We apply a generalized boosted regression method to produce a trait profile of a typical rodent reservoir, and identify particular rodent species and geographic regions with a high probability of carrying zoonotic infections.

Results/Conclusions

Future rodent-derived zoonoses are most likely to come from species with a fast demography and are likely to arise in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Specifically, key traits describing biogeography (geographic range size and the mean density of human populations within those ranges) and life history (age to sexual maturity, average litter size, and body mass) best predict species that are most likely to be zoonotic reservoirs. Geographical hotspots of known rodent reservoirs occur in North America, Europe, and East Asia, whereas the Middle East and Eastern Europe harbor the greatest diversity of novel reservoir species showing greater than 70% probability of carrying at least one zoonotic infection.