SYMP 8-1
Overview: Pretty darn good control of ecological systems
Much ecological theory underpinning studies in ecosystem management and life history evolution draws on a body of mathematics known as optimal control. In one set of applications, ecosystems managers are assumed to be seeking ‘optimal’ decisions over how to allocate and manage natural resources; in the other, an ‘optimal’ behavior or phenotype is predicted given the particular ecological conditions that an organism will face. In both situations, the underlying ecological systems involved can be noisy, high dimensional and nonlinear; they also vary over multiple space and time scales and are only ever observed imperfectly. However, much of this richness is assumed away in theoretical ecology in a quest to identify optimal solutions. Instead, what is needed is a theoretical approach that embraces the messy complexity of ecological questions without giving up on the optimizers’ drive to find effective management or life history strategies.
Results/Conclusions
We will present a series of such approaches that together offer an alternative to traditional optimal control. When taken together, we refer to these alternatives as ‘pretty darn good’ control. We will illustrate pretty darn good control through a series of applications in marine ecology and marine ecosystem management.
Some recurring lessons from our efforts to apply pretty darn good control to ecological questions include that
i) behaviors that can seem suboptimal when compared to simplified problem formulations might instead be rational and effective once a fuller representation of the relevant optimization problem is considered.
ii) the detailing of how you represent constraints and limitations on the choice sets that individuals face is very important for obtaining sensible predictions from your model.
iii) only some sources of ecological variation need to be reflected in a pretty darn good life history or management strategy and only some entry-points of uncertainty need to be resolved to deliver effective performance.
iv) and finally, when developing a strategy that can respond to ecological variation, a small amount of responsiveness earns big pay-offs, but finessing further offers comparatively little gain.