Linking SDM and demographic models for simulating metapopulations with dynamic spatial structure

Predicting the response of plant populations to climate change requires integrating habitat relationships, dispersal patterns, and population dynamics.  We developed and applied integrated models of plant metapopulations, linking ecological niche (species distribution) models and demographic models.  These models allow exploring species level response to climate change as a function of the interactions among life history and spatial traits.  Many challenges remain.  One is extrapolating local density effects to population-level functions of density dependence.  Others include estimating dispersal rates for species with multiple mechanisms of seed dispersal, and estimating vital rates for long-lived species.