Developing next-generation trace gas models: challenges and direction

Background/Question/Methods

Improved quantification of land–atmosphere interaction requires accurate estimation and realistic variations (spatially and temporally) of trace gas (mainly CH₄, N₂O, and NO) fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems. Over the past few decades, several categories of models have been developed for this purpose and applied to estimate the terrestrial fluxes of trace gas and, further, to examine the land–atmosphere interaction.

Results/Conclusions

Rapid advancements in computational technology and micro-scale genomic information provide an opportunity to develop next-generation trace gas models that should possess a number of advantages. (1) The new models should represent key mechanistic processes responsible for trace gas production and consumption. (2) The new models should be able to integrate information across various scales ranging from micro-scale to macro-scale, and among disciplines from lab incubation experiments to field observations, to remote sensing. (3) The new models should be relatively simple, allowing easy incorporation into Earth system models. A process-rich, microbe-oriented mechanistic framework that simulates trace gas production and consumption is the ideal solution to the above-mentioned requirements. The historical development of trace gas models will be reviewed, and future direction will be suggested. A few examples will be used to demonstrate the challenges of developing next-generation trace gas models.