Land use decisions in Loíza, Puerto Rico: Have climate hazards and demographic vulnerability been considered?

Background/Question/Methods

Since the second half of the 20^th century global warming has become an issue. The increase of sea level has been one of its consequences, a particularly concern for several islands and coasts around the world.  Puerto Rico is a tropical island located in the eastern part of the Caribbean basin. Loíza is a municipality at the northeast cost of the island, and a vulnerable area based on its geospatial and demographic characteristics. The objective of this investigation was to examine, from a socio-ecological perspective, how demographics would increase the geospatial vulnerability of the municipality of Loíza. ArcGIS 10 program was used to visualize the information in spatial mode and analyzed the population vulnerability at different sea level rise. Data was obtained from different areas: Population data from the 2010 U.S. Census, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) data, land use from 2006. Loíza is located in a low land area and also has the biggest river delta from the island, the Río Grande of Loíza (752 km²). The Caribbean is very susceptible to atmospheric events; such hurricanes, tsunamis, tropical storms, etc.  Puerto Rico has been hit from 13 major hurricanes raging between categories 1 thru 5, since the 1900’s. 

Results/Conclusions

Loíza was affected in 1989 from Hugo, a devastating hurricane that pass through the island.  Sea-level change simulators indicate that this area will be totally submerged by water at 7meters. In addition, it has been classified by FEMA as a floating high risk area with a 97% chance for water flows, 75% of the area is classified as wetland. This town’s demographics add up to the already existent geographic and physic vulnerability of this area.  Total population is slowly decreasing however, housing units increased by 16.4%, during last decade.  Loíza’ population is mostly urbanized, with the majority living in the coastal areas, in some cases in less of 100meter from the coast. It has an old age structure, with 14% a population over 65 years old; 52% of population area are females, and 1 out of 3 are female headed households. The median income is about $18,897, with almost half of people living above poverty level and it has a very low educational level.  This research will contribute to rethink the demographics and climate-land use interaction in Loíza. Demographics characteristics in this area pose a great risk for people satisfactorily respond to present and future climate hazards in the area.