PS 25-74
Quantifying the relative success of community forestry in the buffer zone of Chitwan National Park, Nepal, using remote sensing techniques and satellite imagery
Forests, which cover roughly 25 percent of Nepal, have witnessed a history of degradation due to rising population, agricultural expansion, and unsustainable timber harvests in response to expanded forest products markets and growing population pressures. If continued, current rates of loss pose serious threats to rural populations that depend on forests for subsistence use, as well as Nepal’s biodiversity, wildlife habitat, environmental resources, and the functioning of complex ecological systems. Forest policy in Nepal changed dramatically in 1989, when new laws were implemented which laid the foundation for community-based forest management. Here, we use Landsat satellite imagery for the years 1989, 2005, and 2013 to compute a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to compare changes in total percent forest cover for the 36 Buffer Zone (BZ) Village Development Committees (VDCs) surrounding Chitwan National Park (CNP). Our analysis, covering ~3,000 km2, spatially quantifies forest cover and offers insight into the success of modern forest management policies and supporting institutions. Our focus on BZ communities will be used to guide local NGOs and conservation agencies in determining how to best target reforestation work and other aid resources.
Results/Conclusions
NDVI analysis revealed that BZ VDCs lost 9.9% of total forest cover between 1989 and 2005, and regained 7.5% between 2005 and 2013; the overall loss between 1989 and 2013 was 3.1%. T-tests revealed a significant difference in means for percent of total area forested and total number of forested hectares per VDC between 1989 and 2005, and 2005 and 2013. A significant difference was not found between 1989 and 2013, suggesting that the total forest cover in the area has regenerated quite substantially after a long period of steady decline; however, the quality of this forest is likely to vary significantly. Highest quantities of loss and regeneration were found in the north-central BZ of CNP, the area that has experienced the highest rates of population growth and development. Our NDVI analysis is being used to identify specific communities for a social assessment to be conducted in the summer of 2014. Our results, combined with an agent-based model of community/resource use and sustainability, will be used to identify and rank communities for future interventions in energy efficiency and the establishment of fuel wood plantations in cooperation with community participatory programs.