PS 49-52
Climate change affecting the known perameters of the salmon population
Makah tribal land is located on the Northwestern tip of Washington State. Because of the important spiritual connection between the Makah and salmon as well as the economic implications, the salmon population raises concerns among the Makah people. This project uses PRISM, NCAR, and glacier image data to develop prediction models of salmon stress using precipitation and air temperature. The model has been developed to answer the question of what impact climate change will have on the known parameters of salmon reproduction in the Olympic Peninsula in 2050 and 2099. The study hypothesizes that 1) temperatures will increase moderately in 2050 and more severely in 2099, which would cause reproductive issues for salmon., and 2) stream levels will remain the same in 2050 and 2099. The Salmon populations start to feel the stressed in the warm water when air temperatures reach 59-69 degrees Fahrenheit. As the temperature rises, reproductive issues and migration prevention become a factor. The prediction model was run twice to include worst case scenario NCAR data, which assumes high population growth, high energy use, moderate land use changes, and low resources, as well as best case scenario NCAR data, which assumes low population growth, high gross domestic product growth, and low energy use.
Results/Conclusions
While temperatures have not had a major increase over the last 100 years, by 2099 NCAR worst case scenario data models predict the temperature will have increased by 5° – 7° F (65° -77° F),. For the salmon population, air temperatures of 70° – 76° are considered extremely stressful and reproductive issues arise. The prediction models support hypothesis one and temperatures are expected to increase, which will decreases salmon reproduction. Over the last 100 years precipitation has not changed much and precipitation is not expected to change significantly by 2050 and 2099. However, glaciers on the Olympic Peninsula are expected to be gone by 2040. With no glaciers to feed the streams in the summer, streams are expected to both reduce in volume and increase in temperature, therefore becoming an environment that is too stressful for salmon reproduction. In conclusion, the salmon stress prediction model predicts that as temperatures continue to increase, precipitation remains steady and glacial melt is reduced; salmon will no longer be able to survive in the area after 2050. This creates not only an economic catastrophe but also a cultural and spiritual one for the Makah tribe.