COS 118-6
Rigorous home-range estimation: Rederiving the kernel-density estimator for use with autocorrelated data

Thursday, August 14, 2014: 3:20 PM
Golden State, Hyatt Regency Hotel
Chris H. Fleming, Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA
Justin M. Calabrese, Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute at the National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA
Thomas Mueller, Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
Kirk A. Olson, Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA
Peter Leimgruber, Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA
William F. Fagan, Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Background/Question/Methods

Kernel-density estimation (KDE) is unique in its role as a statistically efficient yet non-parametric method for estimating the probability-density function of independent and identically distributed data. Despite its widespread application to home-range estimation, animal tracking data violates the underlying assumption of independence via the presence of autocorrelation. Here, we rederive the kernel-density estimator from first principles, dropping the assumption of independence, and allowing for the presence of autocorrelation. Our new kernel-density estimator is valid for autocorrelated data, which makes it perfectly suited for movement data.

Results/Conclusions

We test our method against both real and simulated data using a sample of Mongolian gazelles and their previously identified autocorrelated movement model. For the individual gazelle with the longest span of data, our autocorrelated KDE predicts a home-range area of 350,000 -- 800,000 km2, while the conventional estimate is only 46,000 -- 53,000 km2. These results are consistent with those from simulated data. As the sampling rate increases and data quality improves, the conventional home-range estimate shrinks with tightening confidence intervals.