COS 55-2
Interactive effects of wind and climate change on C sequestration of forests
The complex interactions among disturbances under a changing climate are difficult to disentangle, especially given their dynamic nature. To improve our understanding of how windstorms and climate change may affect carbon cycling, we are using a forest landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II, Century extension) to project carbon sequestration in northern Minnesota under multiple climate change and disturbance scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using empirical estimates of aboveground productivity (ANPP) and net ecosystem exchange.
Results/Conclusions
Our preliminary simulations suggest that climate change will have a much greater impact on C sequestration than windstorms. Climate change lowered C sequestration by 20%, whereas wind reduced sink strength by only 13%. Under the GFDL A1FI climate scenario, windstorms initially lowered C sequestration but by year 2050, wind actually increased C sequestration through higher ANPP. Our research results will help forest managers evaluate the relative importance of disturbances (e.g. wind) under a changing climate.