Using scaling theories to parameterize simulation models to forecast ecological environmental change

Background/Question/Methods:   Ecologists have developed excellent theoretical frameworks for modelling tree growth and primary productivity from basic principles.   However, our understanding of mortality processes lags behind, and this shortcoming has serious implications when it comes to predicting responses to environmental change.   Results/Conclusions:  I will use simulation models parameterised from permanent plot data, alongside airborne laser scanning imagery, to explore the size-dependency of mortality and the consequences of tree death on ecosystem processes.  I will show that predictable scaling rules do emerge at broad spatial scales, but stochastic influences are strong at the sort of scales at which field ecologists usually operate.