OOS 47
Paleoecological Patterns, Ecological Processes, Modeled Scenarios: Crossing Scales to Understand an Uncertain Future

Wednesday, August 12, 2015: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
314, Baltimore Convention Center
Organizer:
Simon J Goring
Co-organizers:
John W. (Jack) Williams , Andrea Dawson , Michael Dietze and Amy E. Hessl
Moderator:
John W. (Jack) Williams
Ecological models have become increasingly complex making it imperative to constrain them with long term ecological data. The fusion of modern data, long-term ecological records, and statistical modeling presents researchers with novel frameworks to improve our understanding of the past, the present and the future, but achieving these advances also presents significant challenges. Extending ecological data-model fusion across temporal scales requires that we accept the limitations of each data set. Modern datasets are often highly resolved spatially and taxonomically, but often lack the temporal extent to capture ‘slow’ processes such as succession. Historical datasets are often incomplete snapshots - a glimpse into past states of ecosystems - but were often collected for purposes other than scientific inquiry. Paleoecological datasets are able to capture processes that operate on long time-scales (succession, migration ,extinction) or occur infrequently (volcanic events, rapid climate change, and mega-droughts), but paleoecological datasets offer lower taxonomic resolution, higher temporal uncertainty, and uneven spatial coverage. Researchers are beginning to use long term datasets to help model future carbon dynamics and understand ecosystem changes under scenarios of global change in a more integrated fashion. Advances in computational and statistical theory present us with new methods to integrate long term ecological data into ecosystem models. These new methods are rapidly being taken up by the ecological community. Data assimilation methods and broader Bayesian approaches are commonly taught in both workshops and as part of the core curriculum for graduate students in ecology programs worldwide. These methods help us constrain uncertainties in modeled results, but themselves require an understanding of the uncertainties inherent in the ecological data. Thus these approaches often require intense collaboration between ecologists specializing in modelling and data collection, statisticians, and, increasingly, computer scientists. Combining paleoecological data with modern datasets presents challenges, but recent conceptual developments leave us poised to integrate paleoecological data into modern ecological analysis in a direct manner, by coupling paleoecological pattern to modern ecological process. Extending the temporal scale of our models and datasets leaves us poised on the edge of an exciting frontier; ecological change as both a temporal and disciplinary continuum, rather than discrete units, binned across sub-disciplinary boundaries defined by time. The 2015 ESA meeting sees the society on the cusp of its second century, the perfect opportunity to look forward with the past.
1:30 PM
 Drivers of ecosystem variability across temporal scales: Insights from a multi-model comparison of forest dynamics for the past millennium
Christine R Rollinson, Boston University; Yao Liu, University of Arizona; Michael Dietze, Boston University; David J.P. Moore, University of Arizona; Ann Raiho, University of Notre Dame; Neil Pederson, Harvard University; Benjamin Poulter, Montana State University; Joerg Steinkamp, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung; Tristan Quaife, University of Reading; Kevin Schaefer, National Snow & Ice Data Center; Dan M. Ricciuto, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
1:50 PM Cancelled
 The time continuum and true long-term ecology
Valentí Rull, Institute of Earth Sciences "Jaume Almera" (ICTJA-CSIC)
2:10 PM
 Towards sustainability? Using long-term data to manage ecosystem services
Lindsey Gillson, University of Cape Town; Rob Marchant, York University
2:30 PM
 A tree-ring perspective on terrestrial carbon dynamics
Valerie Trouet, University of Arizona; Flurin Babst, University of Arizona; M. Ross Alexander, University of Arizona; Paul Szejner, University of Arizona; Olivier Bouriaud, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava; Stefan Klesse, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; John S. Roden, Southern Oregon University; Philippe Ciais, CNRS; Benjamin Poulter, Montana State University; David C. Frank, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; David J.P. Moore, University of Arizona
3:10 PM
3:20 PM
 From pollen to carbon: Lessons learned by tying vegetation, land use and climate change from the past to the present and into the future
Simon J Goring, University of Wisconsin; John W. (Jack) Williams, University of Wisconsin, Madison; Andria E. Dawson, University of California, Berkeley; David J. Mladenoff, University of Wisconsin; Jason S. McLachlan, University of Notre Dame; Michael Dietze, Boston University; Sydne Record, Bryn Mawr College; Jaclyn Hattala Mathes, Dartmouth College; Ellen R. Kujawa, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Charles V. Cogbill, Plainfield, VT; Stephen T. Jackson, U.S. Geological Survey
3:40 PM
 Reconciling uncertainty in long term data and uncertainty in long-term projections from models
Jason McLachlan, University of Notre Dame; Michael Dietze, Boston University; Christopher J. Paciorek, University of California, Berkeley; Jaclyn Hattala Mathes, Dartmouth College; Ann Raiho, University of Notre Dame; John W. (Jack) Williams, University of Wisconsin, Madison
4:00 PM
 Tundra fire regimes and responses to climate change: Novel disturbance in the Arctic?
Feng Sheng Hu, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Melissa Chipman, University of Illinois; Paul Duffy, Neptune and Company, Inc.; Philip E. Higuera, University of Idaho
4:20 PM
 Decomposing vegetation dynamics in ecosystem-model simulations and comparison with paleoecological observations
Yao Liu, University of Arizona; Christine R Rollinson, Boston University; Michael Dietze, Boston University; Benjamin Poulter, Montana State University; Tristan Quaife, University of Reading; Ann Raiho, University of Notre Dame; Dan M. Ricciuto, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Kevin Schaefer, National Snow & Ice Data Center; Joerg Steinkamp, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung; David J.P. Moore, University of Arizona
4:40 PM
 Effects of mass extinction on beta diversity at nested spatial scales
Simon AF Darroch, Smithsonian Museum of Natural History