OOS 78
Predicting Range Shifts in Response to Ongoing Environmental Change Using Dynamic Modelling Approaches

Thursday, August 13, 2015: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
336, Baltimore Convention Center
Charles B. Yackulic, US Geological Survey
David A.W. Miller, Penn State University; and Evan H. Campbell Grant, US Geological Survey
Evan H. Campbell Grant, US Geological Survey
Ecologists are frequently interested in understanding what limits the current distributions of species and predicting changes in these geographic distributions in response to environmental change, especially species invasions, habitat modification and climate change. To date, the majority of studies have relied on techniques that link environmental covariates to the observed distribution of one or more species at a single time point (i.e., static species distribution models). Increasingly techniques are being developed to model the processes that determine species distributions – factors such as colonization, dispersal, local extinction, and local population growth rates based on occurrence or count data. These techniques are less dependent on equilibrium assumptions and better suited for predicting the speed at which ranges shift in response to changing environmental conditions. In this session we seek to provide an overview of dynamic species distribution models and their application to specific case studies. In particular, we will show how factors such as species interactions, disease dynamics, climate change, and habitat dynamics have been incorporated into these approaches and how these approaches can be used to directly inform management decisions. Talks will cover a wide-range of approaches, including simple discrete Markov-chain models of species occurrence (i.e., dynamic occupancy models) to integrated modeling approaches that combine both count and demographic data to model population dynamics. The symposium will serve as a general overview of options for researchers interested in applying these approaches.
1:30 PM
 Transient dynamics, competition and “niche-based modelling”
Charles B. Yackulic, US Geological Survey; James D. Nichols, U.S. Geological Survey; Janice Reid, U.S. Forest Service; Ricky Der, Princeton University
1:50 PM
 Dynamic occupancy modeling for conservation
James D. Nichols, U.S. Geological Survey; Charles B. Yackulic, US Geological Survey; Janice Reid, U.S. Forest Service; James E. Hines, U.S. Geological Survey; Raymond Davis, USDA Forest Service; Eric Forsman, U.S. Forest Service
2:10 PM
 Hosts, pathogens, and species occurrence: Using occupancy models to make inference in disease systems
Brittany A. Mosher, Colorado State University; Larissa L. Bailey, Colorado State University; Kathryn P. Huyvaert, Colorado State University
2:30 PM
 Predicting among species variation in amphibian responses to climate change from dynamic hierarchical occurrence models
David A.W. Miller, Penn State University; Evan H. Campbell Grant, US Geological Survey; Staci Amburgey, Penn State University; Erin Muths, USGS Fort Collins Science Center
2:50 PM
 Taking trees to their limits and beyond: A dynamic modeling approach
Bradley J. Tomasek, Duke University; Jacqueline Mohan, University of Georgia; Jerry M. Melillo, Marine Biological Laboratory; James S. Clark, Duke University
3:10 PM
3:20 PM
 Projecting changes in subalpine tree populations with warming across an elevation gradient
Erin E. Conlisk, University of California, Berkeley; Cristina Castanha, Berkeley Lab; Andrew B. Moyes, University of California, Merced; Matthew J. Germino, US Geological Survey; Jeremy M. Smith, University of Colorado, Boulder; Thomas T. Veblen, University of Colorado; Lara Kueppers, University of California Merced
3:40 PM
 Using state-space models to predict within-range variation in responses of wood frogs to annual variation in weather
Staci Amburgey, Penn State University; Michael F. Benard, Case Western Reserve University; Christopher Davis, University of Pittsburgh; Evan H. Campbell Grant, US Geological Survey; Ward Hughson, Parks Canada; Peter Paton, University of Rhode Island; Christopher Raithel, Division of Fish and Wildlife; Rick A Relyea, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; Jonathan L. Richardson, Providence College; Tracy A. G. Rittenhouse, University of Connecticut; David K. Skelly, Yale University; Dennis Skidds, National Parks Service; Mark C. Urban, University of Connecticut; Earl E. Werner, University of Michigan; David A.W. Miller, Penn State University
4:00 PM
 Integrated population models for predicting spatial and temporal dynamics at range margins
Richard Chandler, University of Georgia; Samuel A. Merker, University of Georgia
4:20 PM
 Linking demography to range dynamics with population projection models
Cory Merow, University of Connecticut; Sean M. McMahon, Smithsonian Institution Global Earth Observatory
4:40 PM
 Understanding spring and summer climate impacts on monarch butterflies across the Midwestern United States
Sarah Saunders, Michigan State University; Leslie Ries, University of Maryland; Elise Zipkin, Michigan State University