Climate change and extreme weather events are growing threats to agriculture. In New York State (NYS), small-scale agricultural production has decreased because of recent extreme weather events. Some of the most damaging events to crop yields have been caused by intense precipitation events and extended periods of hot, dry weather such as the drought of 2012 and the extreme rains and floods of 2013. Whether these destructive weather patterns are isolated incidents or reflect a new regime of enhanced prevalence of extreme weather patterns is unclear. In this study, we determined how the frequency of extreme precipitation and temperature has changed in NYS during the period of 1981-2012. Specifically, we used 30-km gridded daily weather data to analyze trends in precipitation and temperature during periods of spring planting, summer production, and autumn harvesting both statewide and by each of the state’s USDA plant hardiness zones. We focused explicitly on extreme events relevant to agriculture such as extreme precipitation events (> 50.8 mm of precipitation in 24 hours), extended dry periods (consecutive and total number of days with 0 mm of precipitation), and heat waves (3-day periods with a daily maximum temperature > 32°C).
Results/Conclusions
Our results suggest that shifts in precipitation in spring and summer are creating the potential for significant losses to agricultural production in NYS. Over the study period, spring extreme precipitation events have significantly increased from a mean of 0.15 days/pixel to 0.56 days/pixel statewide (p=0.03, +0.13 days/pixel/decade), and to varying extents in several hardiness zones statewide. Extreme precipitation events have also increased during the summer months from a mean of 0.03 days/pixel to 0.44 days/pixel statewide (p < 0.01, +0.13 days/pixel/decade). Additionally, the total mean number of dry days during the summer has decreased statewide 57 days/pixel to 50 days/pixel (p = 0.02, -2.42 days/pixel/decade), indicating that overall, conditions during the growth and development stages of annual crop life cycles are becoming wetter. Excess precipitation can flood fields, increase incidence of disease, increase runoff, and decrease field access. Although adaptation options are available to help farmers combat an increase in extreme precipitation, such tools are often unaffordable to smaller farms, leaving a large component of New York’s agriculture industry vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Moreover while the results of this study focus on agriculture, natural vegetation communities will also be confronted by these negative impacts of climate change without the benefit of potential anthropogenic intervention.