Many studies state that several sectors will be impacted by climate change resulting from increased temperatures, altered patterns of rainfall and drought, and heatwaves and cold spells. These changes will affect not only mankind but also ecosystems, especially forests. The World Risk Report (The Nature Conservancy, 2012) and the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) have reported that ecosystems will increasingly be exposed to extreme weather in the future. Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) are air pollutants, which influence climate despite having a short residence time in the atmosphere, and their role has been recognized in the IPCC’s AR5 report. In addition to influencing global warming, these pollutants may have adverse effects on human health.
The aim of this study is the development of an integrated model for climate change impact assessment, through damage costs and adaptation costs for the forestry sector in the Korean Peninsula. This study will suggest a climate change strategy at the national level by means of a comprehensive economic analysis of the impacts and adaptation costs of climate change.
Results/Conclusions
We developed a statistical model to estimate the net primary production (NPP) dependent on atmospheric ozone concentration. Our model slightly underestimated NPP as compared to the MODIS data. At current ozone levels, NPP is decreased by about 2.3% due to the ozone effect. NPP further decreases by about 1-2% on the assumption that the concentration of ozone does not change in the future, but if the concentration of ozone exceeds 30%, from 0.05 ppm to 0.065 ppm, NPP decreases about 3.1%. We have to consider concentrations of ozone greater than 0.065 ppm, since the concentration of ozone has more than doubled during the last decade. Lastly, the damage cost caused by the ozone effect is projected to be significantly higher than that caused by the climate effect in the future.
Greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants arising from China are a threat to East Asian countries including Korea and Japan. Therefore, we need a climate adaption plan to reduce the damage cost caused by air pollution from China in the future.