Parcelization and forest fragmentation are of concern for ecological, economic, and social reasons. Efforts to keep large, private forests intact may be supported by a decision-making process that incorporates landowners’ objectives and uncertainty. We used structured decision making (SDM) with owners of large forests in Macon County, North Carolina. We worked with Macon County landowners because Macon County has experienced amenity-driven development but has little land use regulation and a history of ineffective attempts to address land use and development. The decision context for our SDM project was what forest management action can best meet landowners’ objectives, including avoiding parcelization. Through a series of workshops, landowners defined their land use objectives, identified decision options for forest management, built a Bayesian decision network to predict the outcomes of decision options, and determined the optimal and least-desirable decision options.
Results/Conclusions
The landowners identified five objectives: maximize forest health, safety, aesthetics, net income, and heritage preservation. The Bayesian decision network indicated that the optimal forest management option for an average large, forested property (30 ha property with 22 ha of forest) in Macon County was crown-thinning timber harvest under the Present-Use Value program, in which enrolled property is taxed at the present-use value (growing timber for commercial harvest) rather than full market value. The least-desirable forest management options were selling 1 ha and personal use of the forest (e.g., trails, firewood) with or without a conservation easement. Landowners reported that they enjoyed participating in the project (85%) and would reconsider what they are currently doing to manage their forest (69%). The decision that 66% of landowners initially thought would best meet their objectives did not match results from the decision network. This highlights the usefulness of SDM, which typically has been applied to decision problems involving public resources. SDM can be a useful decision-support tool for managing both public and private natural resources as novel ecosystems develop since it is interdisciplinary, encourages communication with broad stakeholder groups, and incorporates complex technical- and value-based information.