SYMP 18 - What Approaches to Spatial Synchrony Are Needed to Understand Human Impacts on Populations?

Thursday, August 11, 2016: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
Grand Floridian Blrm D, Ft Lauderdale Convention Center
Daniel C Reuman, University of Kansas
Lawrence W. Sheppard, University of Kansas
Daniel Reuman, University of Kansas
Coincident temporal variation in the abundances of spatially separated populations, called spatial synchrony, has been detected in species of insects, fish, mammals, protists and many other taxa, spanning distances up to hundreds of kilometers. This ubiquitous phenomenon is a crucial component of population dynamics. It is also of primary importance to ecosystem functioning and services if the populations are pests, diseases, or harvested or threatened species. The components of dynamics that drive ecosystem services of species located in different locations are generally the synchronous ones. Non-synchronous components of dynamics disappear in the spatial average, by the central limit theorem. So the nature of synchrony will often be more important than local dynamics themselves. In spite of the importance of synchrony, changes in synchrony and potential impacts of climate change on synchrony are little studied. Climate change constitutes not just warming, but also changes in other statistical characteristics of environmental signals. Synchrony can also be transmitted through trophic interactions - e.g., synchronized predator populations can induce synchrony in prey. But the extent to which climate-induced changes in synchrony may cascade through complex species interaction networks via this mechanism is unknown. These gaps in knowledge probably result from historic difficulties in identifying specific climatic drivers of population synchrony, which in turn prevented research on possible impacts climate change could have on synchrony if it modifies these drivers. But recently a variety of novel statistical, experimental and modeling techniques have been developed, and researchers have begun exploring the causes of synchrony, secular trends and regime shift in synchrony, and the climatic and other reasons for such changes. Methods used are disparate, including matrix regression methods, wavelet statistics, laboratory experiments, spatial statistics, and linear and nonlinear models and fitting of models with data. Existing approaches examine different aspects of the overall characterization of synchrony. This symposium will help synthesize these methods as well as the ecological insights of a variety of researchers to produce an overall improvement in approaches to general questions such as 1) how is synchrony changing and why, and how might humans be responsible for this? 2) what is the detailed structure of synchrony, and what can we learn about population interactions from this structure? 3) how do changes in synchrony affect the larger ecosystem of which the focal species is a part, and human concerns that interact with that ecosystem?
8:00 AM
 Introduction to the symposium, and a biogeography of synchrony for marine and terrestrial primary production and its causes
Daniel C Reuman, Rockefeller University; Emma Defriez, Imperial College Silwood Park; Lawrence W. Sheppard, University of Kansas; Jonathan A. Walter, University of Kansas
8:30 AM
 Temporal changes in environmental spatial synchrony and its effects on avian populations
Walter D. Koenig, Cornell University; Andrew M. Liebhold, USDA Forest Service
9:00 AM
 Wavelet approaches to changes in synchrony of aphids and plankton
Lawrence W. Sheppard, University of Kansas; Daniel C Reuman, University of Kansas; Philip C. Reid, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS); Richard Harrington, Rothamsted Research; James Bell, Rothamsted Research; Emma Defriez, Imperial College Silwood Park
9:30 AM
9:40 AM
 Multi-trophic interactions and spatially synchronous forest insect outbreaks
Kyle J. Haynes, University of Virginia; Ottar Bjornstad, Pennsylvania State University; Andrew J. Allstadt, University of Wisconsin; Andrew M. Liebhold, USDA Forest Service
10:10 AM
 Loss of synchrony and changes in spatial dynamics from mass vaccination against measles
Ottar N. Bjornstad, Penn State University; Max Lau, Princeton University; C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Princeton University; Bryan Grenfell, Princeton University; Aaron A. King, University of Michigan
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