OOS 35 - Novel Tropical Ecosystems: Response to Global Change

Thursday, August 11, 2016: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
Grand Floridian Blrm G, Ft Lauderdale Convention Center
Organizer:
Jennifer A. Holm, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Co-organizers:
Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California Berkeley; and Lara Kueppers, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California Merced
Moderator:
Lara Kueppers, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California Merced
It is strongly predicted that warming tropical climates of the 21st Century will push tropical ecosystems, which currently reside at the edge of bioclimatic life zones, into novel states that have no-analog communities. As the climate system warms, tropical forests will be exposed to unprecedented warmer temperatures than those currently found in these biomes. Shifting precipitation patterns will place some tropical forest regions under drought conditions that reduce carbon assimilation and lead to vegetation dieback. Intact tropical forests are a major sink for atmospheric CO2, accounting for up to 50% of terrestrial carbon uptake. Yet, the response to global change, land-use change, carbon-climate feedbacks, and nutrient limitation will contribute to large uncertainty in the stability of this carbon sink over the next 100 years. In addition, most ecological models are parameterized and structured based off of modern observations, which may lead to failure in predicting ecological response to novel climates. Therefore further uncertainty resides in our ability to model tropical forest response to novel climates. Tropical forests are responsible for multiple biases in Earth System Models (ESMs), which result in large disagreements in the future signal of tropical forests acting as a carbon source or sink. Taking a critical look at the research priorities needed to improve representation of tropical ecosystems in models is vital to decrease uncertainties in representing future no-analog communities. This session will focus on collaborations and science feedbacks made between process/experimental scientists and modeling scientists that share an interest in advancing the understanding of tropical ecosystem novel states. This session will include studies focused on model uncertainty and evaluation of modeling biases, which can then be used to inform and develop field experiments. This “Modex” framework (i.e. model-experiment) can be a strong tool for improving predictive understanding of tropical ecosystems and climate feedbacks, while informing the development of next generation modeling science. This session will compliment and benefit the newly developed Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment-Tropics (NGEE-Tropics), which is a 10-year project to dramatically reduce uncertainty in ESM projections, and increase the scientific understanding of how tropical forest ecosystems will respond to climatic change. We propose to explore field sampling techniques, experimental and manipulation projects, remote sensing, and datasets that can inform and validate models, all towards reducing the uncertainty of ecological processes under novel tropical climates.
1:30 PM
 Tropical forests and the Earth system under a warming climate
Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California Berkeley; Nate McDowell, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Kolby Jardine, US Department of Energy; Robinson Negron-Juarez, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; Jennifer A. Holm, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Niro Higuchi, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia; Clarissa Fontes, UC Berkeley
1:50 PM
 Tropical forest responses to a warming climate: Initial results from a field warming experiment in Puerto Rico
Tana E. Wood, USDA Forest Service; Sasha C. Reed, U.S. Geological Survey; Molly A. Cavaleri, Michigan Technological University
2:10 PM
 Drought in the rainforest: Biogeochemical responses and feedbacks to climate change
Whendee L. Silver, University of California, Berkeley; Christine S. O'Connell, University of California, Berkeley
2:30 PM
 Climate change drives the thermophilization of neotropical forests
Kenneth J. Feeley, Florida International University
2:50 PM
 Lost and altered plant-animal interactions: The insidious effects of global warming on tropical ecosystems
Erin K. Kuprewicz, Smithsonian Institution; Carlos Garcia-Robledo, Smithsonian Institution
3:10 PM
3:20 PM
 Glimpsing the no-analogue future Amazon rainforest with no-analogue experimental and modeling approaches
David M. Lapola, Universidade Estadual Paulista – UNESP; Katrin Fleischer, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA; Bart Kruijt, Alterra Research Institute / Wageningen University; Anja Rammig, Technical University Munich
3:40 PM
 Increased photosynthesis precedes elevated tree mortality in Amazon forests under El Nino drought
Scott R. Saleska, University of Arizona; Bradley Christoffersen, University of Edinburgh; Matthew Hayek, Harvard University; M. Longo, Harvard University; Jin Wu, University of Arizona; Kenia Weidemann, Harvard University; Natalia restrepo-Coupe, University of Arizona; Rodrigo da Silva, Federal University of Western Pará (UFOPA); Luciana Alves, Institute of Agricultural Sciences (; Raimundo C. Oliveira, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA); Patrick Meir, Australian National University; Plinio B. Camargo, University of Sao Paulo
4:00 PM
 Role of community composition in determining tropical dry forest ecosystem responses to altered water and nutrient regimes
David M. Medvigy, Princeton University; Annette Trierweiler, Department of Geosciences; Xiangtao Xu, Princeton University; Jennifer S. Powers, University of Minnesota
4:20 PM
 Linking ecosystem demography modeling and field experiments to understand tropical forest response to novel disturbance regimes
Jennifer A. Holm, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Robinson Negron-Juarez, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; Ryan Knox, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California Berkeley; Charles Koven, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; Daniel Magnabosco Marra, University of Leipzig; Sami Walid Rifai, University of Florida; Niro Higuchi, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia; Lara Kueppers, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California Merced