World on fire: Using models to forecast ecosystem state change from human-climate-fire interactions

In a 400ppm world, we better get fire “right” in our models. Fire risk (probability*consequence) is likely to increase in the future. However, we lack a cohesive modeling strategy that incorporates the multiscalar (leaf to globe) dimensions of fire biogeochemistry or its components. Models should embrace the use of vegetation traits to unravel tradeoffs among flammability, mortality, and recovery, include the impacts of future climates and atmospheric chemistry (e.g., oxygen, water vapor) on fire susceptibility, and better simulate human ignitions and societal impacts. Feedbacks among these factors will enhance understanding of global change and societal resilience in a fire-prone world.