PS 63-4 - Predicting the effects of increasing temperature on the interaction of prey-predator system: A case study of two aphid-ladybird systems

Friday, August 11, 2017
Exhibit Hall, Oregon Convention Center
Minyoung Lee1, Jinsol Hong1, Hyoung-ho Mo2, Hojeong Choe3 and Kijong Cho1, (1)Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Institute of Life Science and Natural Resources, Korea University, Korea, Republic of (South), (3)Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Korea, Republic of (South)

Global warming can seriously impact on the interaction between prey and predator due to the differences in optimal temperature ranges. Two aphid-ladybug systems, Myzus persicae-Coccinella septempunctata (M-C) and Aphis gossypii-Coccinella septempunctata (A-C) in the pepper were simulated under temperature scenarios with the assumption that the average temperature is higher by 1, 3, 5, and 7°C than that in Seoul in 2000, respectively. The Rosenzweig-Macathur model was corrected to be embedded with hump-shaped temperature-dependent regression models for each system to explore their short-term interaction strength. The long-term interaction strength was quantified by a dynamic index based on the model.


The results showed that the short-term interaction increased and decreased with increasing temperature in both systems and the A-C system had much larger fluctuation patterns easily exceeding the economic threshold density than the M-C system. The dynamic index presented that M-C and A-C had natively strong and weak interaction respectively and they were getting weaker and stronger as temperature increases. It is expected that A-C system would be more sensitive in the short-term and both systems would have the opposite tendency in the long-term under climate change condition.