OOS 35 - Linking Management, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services Via Mechanistic Models

Thursday, August 10, 2017: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
Portland Blrm 257, Oregon Convention Center
Steven F. Railsback, Humboldt State University
Volker Grimm, UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Ecological Research - UFZ
Steven F. Railsback, Humboldt State University
Mechanistic ecological and economic models are becoming essential tools for conservation of biodiversity and the services it provides. Biodiversity is more likely to be conserved if conservation is clearly shown to provide valuable ecosystem services, so conservation success can depend strongly on our ability to understand and quantify ecosystem services provided by specific biodiversity resources. Conservation success also depends on our ability to predict biodiversity responses to management actions. Very often, the systems we address are too complex to understand and predict using only traditional field experiments and empirical science: there are too many variables, interactions, uncontrolled or stochastic events, effects of behavior, etc. for empirical modeling to be sufficiently predictive. Therefore, we turn to mechanistic models as a way to design and predict responses to biodiversity management measures and to quantify the resulting ecosystem services. Mechanistic ecological models, often individual-based, can link biodiversity measures such as abundance and distribution of key species to management decisions such as land uses and harvest rates. Results of such models can often be directly linked to economic or social models designed to predict the value to humans of alternative biodiversity outcomes. We will illustrate these approaches with prominent examples and provide guidance on their successful application. The opening speaker will introduce important ecosystem services management issues and illustrate the need for mechanistic models. The final speaker will summarize the current state of mechanistic ecological modeling and provide guidance on strategies and techniques for designing models with sufficient yet not excess complexity, developing and testing reliable theory for model mechanisms, and for analyzing and interpreting results. The other speakers will provide guidance and recommendations from experience with ecological and economic models used in fields such as marine fish harvest, agricultural land use, stream fish management, and tropical forest management.
8:00 AM
 The role of mechanistic models in linking management, ecosystem services, and wildlife conservation: Examples with Jamaican coffee farms
Matthew D. Johnson, Humboldt State University; Steven F. Railsback, Humboldt State University
8:20 AM
 A spatial modelling framework for predicting the effects of landscape composition and configuration on ecosystem service provision
Laura Graham, University of Southampton; Rebecca Spake, University of Southampton; Felix Eigenbrod, University of Southampton
8:40 AM
 Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes: An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs
Jan Salecker, University of Göttingen; Claudia Dislich, University of Göttingen; Elisabeth Hettig, University of Göttingen; Johannes Heinonen, University of Göttingen; Jann Lay, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies; Katrin M. Meyer, University of Göttingen; Suria Tarigan, Bogor Agricultural University; Kerstin Wiegand, University of Göttingen
9:00 AM
 A mechanistic model to explain how plant-mycorrhizal disruptions can lead to invasion success: Implications for biodiversity conservation and management
Matthew A. McCary, University of Illinois at Chicago; David Wise, University of Illinois at Chicago; Moira Zellner, University of Illinois at Chicago
9:20 AM
 Everybody needs water: Mechanistic stream fish modeling to reconcile biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services
Bret C. Harvey, U.S. Forest Service; Steven F. Railsback, Humboldt State University
9:40 AM
9:50 AM
 Modeling crop pollination services across agricultural landscapes
Taylor Ricketts, University of Vermont; Eric Lonsdorf, University of Minnesota; Insu Koh, University of Vermont
10:10 AM
 Ecologic and economic modeling to identify win-wins for nutrient conservation and farmer profitability in agricultural landscapes
Elke Brandes, Iowa State University; Gabe McNunn, AgSolver, Inc.; Lisa A. Schulte Moore, Iowa State University; Emily A. Heaton, Iowa State University; Andy VanLoocke, Iowa State University; Alejandro Plastina, Iowa State University; David J. Muth, AgSolver, Inc.
10:30 AM
 A model to evaluate barred owl removal strategies for Northern Spotted Owl conservation
Ryan C. Baumbusch, Oregon State University; Daniel C. Barton, Humboldt State University
10:50 AM
 A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals
Valery Forbes, University of Minnesota; Christopher J. Salice, Towson University
11:10 AM
 Modeling impacts of multiple stressors: From metabolic to ecosystem processing
Nika Galic, University of Minnesota; Lauren L. Sullivan, University of Minnesota; Volker Grimm, UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Ecological Research - UFZ; Valery Forbes, University of Minnesota