OOS 15 - Ecological Forecasting: Advances and Opportunities

Tuesday, August 8, 2017: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
Portland Blrm 256, Oregon Convention Center
Michael Dietze, Boston University
Andrew M. Fox, University of Arizona; Shannon L. LaDeau, Cary Insitute of Ecosystem Studies; and Jason McLachlan, University of Notre Dame
Jason McLachlan, University of Notre Dame
How are ecological systems and the services they provide going to change in the future? How do human decisions affect this trajectory? In a world facing rapid environmental change, these are the most pressing questions facing ecology. They also present fundamental questions about how we make forecasts in ecology. Ecological forecasting is the process of predicting the states of ecological systems and ecosystem services, with fully specified uncertainties and is often contingent on explicit scenarios (climate, management, etc). With recent advances in data availability, models, statistics, and policy, the time is ripe for rapid progress in making ecology more predictive. Furthermore, a forecasting approach will not only advance basic ecology more quickly, but will make it more relevant to society. That said, there are many conceptual and technical challenges to improving our ability to make predictions, such as the need for improvements in theories and models, data assimilation, targeted reductions in data deficiencies, and the quantification, propagation, and analysis of uncertainties. This session aims to highlight cutting-edge forecasting research in terrestrial and aquatic systems across both ecosystem and population/community approaches and encompassing both basic science and applications.
1:30 PM
 Using predictive ability to measure ecological understanding
Jeff Houlahan, University of New Brunswick
1:50 PM
 On the nature of prediction in ecology
Michael Dietze, Boston University
2:10 PM
 Advancing the limits of ecological forecasting: Lessons from experimental microbial ecosystems
Owen L. Petchey, University of Zurich; Frank Pennekamp, University of Zurich; Alison C. Iles, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; - sPred Working Group (iDiv), German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig
2:30 PM
 Data-intensive approaches to forecasting biodiversity
Ethan P. White, University of Florida; David J. Harris, University of Florida; Shawn Taylor, University of Florida
2:50 PM
 Early warnings of cyanobacterial blooms in lakes
Grace M. Wilkinson, Iowa State University; Stephen R. Carpenter, University of Wisconsin - Madison; Michael L. Pace, University of Virginia; Jonathan J. Cole, Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies; Ryan Batt, Rutgers University; Cal Buelo, University of Virginia; Jason Kurtzweil, University of Wisconsin - Madison
3:10 PM
3:20 PM
 Forecasting the impact of phenological shifts on ectotherm species
Inés Ibáñez, University of Michigan; Justin Congdon, Savannah River Ecology Laboratory
3:40 PM
 Operationalizing ecological forecasts: Two case studies in moving from research to production
Emily Read, USGS; Megan Hines, USGS; Heather Schreppel, Cherokee Nation Technologies; Hilary Stockdon, USGS; Jordan I. Walker, USGS; Jake F. Weltzin, USA National Phenology Network
4:00 PM
 Improving ecological forecasting decision support for adaptive environmental management decisions
Melissa A. Kenney, University of Maryland; Michael D. Gerst, University of Maryland; Allison E. Baer, University of Maryland
4:20 PM
4:40 PM
 An experimental test of population predictions based on historical climate-demography correlations
Andrew R. Kleinhesselink, Utah State University; John B. Bradford, U.S. Geological Survey; Caitlin M. Andrews, USGS; Peter B. Adler, Utah State University