Tuesday, August 8, 2017: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
Portland Blrm 256, Oregon Convention Center
Organizer:
Michael Dietze, Boston University
Co-organizers:
Andrew M. Fox, University of Arizona;
Shannon L. LaDeau, Cary Insitute of Ecosystem Studies; and
Jason McLachlan, University of Notre Dame
Moderator:
Jason McLachlan, University of Notre Dame
How are ecological systems and the services they provide going to change in the future? How do human decisions affect this trajectory? In a world facing rapid environmental change, these are the most pressing questions facing ecology. They also present fundamental questions about how we make forecasts in ecology. Ecological forecasting is the process of predicting the states of ecological systems and ecosystem services, with fully specified uncertainties and is often contingent on explicit scenarios (climate, management, etc). With recent advances in data availability, models, statistics, and policy, the time is ripe for rapid progress in making ecology more predictive. Furthermore, a forecasting approach will not only advance basic ecology more quickly, but will make it more relevant to society. That said, there are many conceptual and technical challenges to improving our ability to make predictions, such as the need for improvements in theories and models, data assimilation, targeted reductions in data deficiencies, and the quantification, propagation, and analysis of uncertainties. This session aims to highlight cutting-edge forecasting research in terrestrial and aquatic systems across both ecosystem and population/community approaches and encompassing both basic science and applications.
2:50 PM
Early warnings of cyanobacterial blooms in lakes
Grace M. Wilkinson, Iowa State University;
Stephen R. Carpenter, University of Wisconsin - Madison;
Michael L. Pace, University of Virginia;
Jonathan J. Cole, Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies;
Ryan Batt, Rutgers University;
Cal Buelo, University of Virginia;
Jason Kurtzweil, University of Wisconsin - Madison