Elasticity is proportional change in population growth rate
resulting from a small change in a
vital rate. Elasticities are
usually calculated for long-run
population growth rates: dominant
eigenvalue
of the projection matrix in a deterministic environment
or stochastic growth rate in the
presence of environmental
variation. We derive elasticities of yearly growth rates, which
are time dependent, in varying
environments. This is called
real-time elasticity. We show that
moving averages of real-time
elasticities
converge to long-run stochastic elasticity, thus
making a connection between
short-term and long-term selection.
When there is no environmental
variation real-time elasticities
reduce to transient elasticities. Our results explain why
transient elasticities
differ from asymptotic ones and how this
difference depends on the demography of the species. We
describe
applications of our results in
life-history evolution and
conservation biology.