Climate-induced
widespread dieback of dominant tree species may lead to rapid large-scale vegetation
shifts. We analyzed mechanisms of potential forest composition shift related to
a mass mortality event triggered by an ENSO-related warm drought occurred in 1998-99
in mixed Nothofagus-Austrocedrus
forests of northern Patagonia. Extensive sampling of these transitional forests
showed that mortality of adult trees during the 1998-99 drought was an order of
magnitude higher in the angiosperm Nothofagus dombeyi (11-57%
of trees killed) than in the conifer Austrocedrus chilensis (0-5% of trees killed). Composition of the
forest changed from being N. dombeyi-dominated (65%) to a nearly equally represented
mixed N. dombeyi-A.
chilensis forest. Likewise, 7-30% of N. dombeyi saplings
were killed compared to 1-1.2% of A. chilensis saplings.
N. dombeyi
reduced its density of live trees from 243 to 105 trees ha-1 resulting
in numerous drought-gaps. Drought gaps had lower diffuse radiation levels and
100% lower summer soil moisture contents compared to nearby tree fall gaps. Two-year
monitoring natural seedling establishment within drought gaps indicates that A. chilensis
seedlings survived 4 times more than N. dombeyi seedlings. Likewise, 2-year survival of
transplanted seedlings was 3 times higher in conifer vs. angiosperm seedlings.
Five years after the event, A. chilensis seedlings established in drought gaps were 5
times more abundant than N. dombeyi seedlings, contrasting with similar densities under
undisturbed canopies. Our results document important angiosperm-to-conifer
shifts mediated by drought and suggest
that dieback-induced compositional shifts of forests may not only be driven by
differential adult and sapling mortality but also by post-drought biotic and abiotic changes affecting tree seedling recruitment
performance.