Global climate change, acting through warmer sea surface
temperatures, and desertification, acting through a reduction in vegetation
cover, have reduced rainfall over the West African Sahel by up to
30% in the 20th Century. In addition, mean annual temperature in the
Sahel increased up to 1ºC in the 20th Century. During the 1968-1973 drought,
rainfall fell more than one standard deviation below the long-term mean for up
to five consecutive years. The drought reduced agricultural yields so significantly
that it contributed to the death of up to a quarter of a million people. The
drought also caused forest dieback across West Africa. Field
inventories of 135 1-ha plots across 7600 km2 in Senegal and at 14
sites in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger showed decreases in
species richness of up to 57% in the period 1945-2000. Analyses of 1954 and
1989 aerial photos in Senegal showed a statistically significant (p < 0.001)
decline in tree density of 23 ± 5%. Field inventories of 12 1-ha plots and
analyses of 1954 aerial photographs and 2002 1-meter resolution IKONOS
satellite images of three 200 km2 areas in Senegal and Mauritania
also show forest dieback. Species from Mimosaceae and other xeric families expanded in the north, tracking a concomitant
retraction of species from Anacardiaceae, Meliaceae, and other mesic families to the south. Climate
change has shifted the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea ecological zones south 25-30 km
towards areas of higher rainfall. The vegetation shift has altered ecosystems,
reduced the provision of ecosystem services, and rendered local people more
vulnerable to climate change and desertification.