Marc Choisy1, Jean-Francois Guegan1, and Pejman Rohani2. (1) Génétique & Evolution des Maladies Infectieuses, (2) Institute of Ecology
Dynamical systems theory predicts that inherently oscillatory systems
undergoing periodic forcings will exhibit resonance phenomena, which
are characterized by qualitative dynamical consequences resulting from
the amplification of small external perturbations. In this paper we
use extensive numerical simulations to demonstrate that the periodic
nature of pulse vaccination strategies can make disease dynamics
resonate. We proceed step by step in order to tease apart the
dynamical consequences of (i) the intrinsic nonlinearity of the
host-pathogen system, (ii) the seasonal variation in transmission and
(iii) the additional forcing caused by vaccinating in pulses. We
document that the resonance phenomenon associated with pulse
vaccination can have quantitative epidemiological implications and
produce perverse effects such as an unexpected increase in the number
of infectives as the vaccination frequency increases. Our findings
emphasize the importance of carefully taking into account the
dynamical properties of the disease when designing a pulse vaccination
strategy.