Tuesday, August 7, 2007 - 1:30 PM

COS 45-1: Managing infectious diseases without R0

Richard D. Horan, Michigan State University and Eli P. Fenichel, Michigan State University.

The literature on infectious diseases in wild populations has focused primarily on a pathogen’s ability to expand within an existing host-pathogen system or invade new systems.  The basic reproductive ratio of the pathogen (R0) is used to quantify this ability. Whenever R0 < 1 the pathogen cannot invade or pathogen prevalence diminishes.  Using R0 (or variations thereof), managers determine levels of harvesting, vaccination, or other efforts required to prevent a disease outbreak or to eradicate established pathogens.  R0, however, has significant limitations as a management tool.  First, R0 is calculated at a pathogen-free equilibrium.  Therefore, management based on R0 is unresponsive to the current state of the world, and R0 is an exogenous function of ecological parameters and unaffected by management choices.  Second, the threshold criterion R0 = 1 only implies a minimum level of control, but not the most desirable level.  Moreover, this threshold is not uniquely determined in systems with multiple hosts or multiple management opportunities.  We therefore reject R0 as a management tool and instead focus on host-density thresholds, which we show to be endogenous and time-dependent.  We further show how to quantify the degree to which one host is a reservoir for another.  Finally, we analyze management decisions using a multiple-host bioeconomic framework.  We illustrate that host-density thresholds are endogenously determined, as is the degree to which a population is a reservoir.  Improved disease control is achieved by jointly managing a population’s density and its threshold, which depends on managing the reservoir status of other populations.