Thursday, August 9, 2007

PS 57-39: A primer on the potential environmental impacts of peak oil

Guy R. McPherson, University of Arizona and Jake F. Weltzin, University Of Tennessee.

Our modern civilization depends on readily available supplies of inexpensive energy, particularly oil. Unfortunately, world oil production peaked late in 2005, and will decline inexorably despite ever-increasing global demand for energy. This divergence between production and demand presents the world with an unprecedented risk-management problem that without timely mitigation will have unprecedented economic, social, political, and environmental costs. To date, most alternatives have been forestalled because of their great potential for environmental impact.  However, in the face of overwhelming global demand for energy, environmental concerns may take a back seat to continued energy production. Thus, it is imperative ecologists develop a conceptual and theoretical understanding of the potential for environmental degradation caused by massive shifts to alternative fuel sources by an energy-dependent world.  Problems associated with post-peak production will be very complex, expensive, and time-consuming; as such, to fully understand the risks involved, we must give the issue our immediate, serious attention. Improved ecological and scientific understanding will greatly facilitate mitigation and (as necessary) the transition to a less energy-dependent society. The goals of this talk are to (1) describe the issue of global hydrocarbon depletion, (2) discuss the potential for environmental, economic, social, and political impacts, (3) outline potential adaptation and mitigation activities and their environmental tradeoffs, and (4) initiate a dialogue on a coordinated response of the scientific community to what may be the greatest challenge in the history of world civilization.

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