Alison Deines1, Ellen Peterson2, Derek Boeckner3, James Boyle4, Amy Keighley5, Joy Kogut6, Joan Lubben3, Richard Rebarber3, Richard Ryan7, Brigitte Tenhumberg8, Stuart B. Townley9, and Andrew J. Tyre3. (1) Kansas State University, (2) Wittenberg University, (3) University of Nebraska-Lincoln, (4) University of Notre Dame, (5) Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, (6) Simmons College, (7) University of Rhode Island, (8) University of Nebraska, Lincoln, (9) University of Exeter
Structured population models are increasingly used in decision making, but typically have many entries that are unknown or highly uncertain. We present an approach for the systematic analysis of the effect of uncertainties on long-term population growth or decay. Many decisions for threatened and endangered species are made with poor or no information. We can still make decisions under these circumstances in a manner that is highly defensible, even without making assumptions about the distribution of uncertainty, or limiting ourselves to discussions of single, infinitesimally small changes in the parameters. Suppose that the model (determined by the data) for the population in question predicts long-term growth. Our goal is to determine how uncertain the data can be before the model loses this property. Some uncertainties will maintain long-term growth, and some will lead to long-term decay. The uncertainties are typically structured, and can be described by several parameters. We illustrate the advantages of the method by applying it to a peregrine falcon population. Based on published demographic rates, we find that an asymptotic growth rate λ > 1 is guaranteed with 5% harvest rate up to 3% error in adult survival if no two year olds breed, and up to 11% error if all two year olds breed. If a population growth rate of 3% or greater is desired, the acceptable error in adult survival decreases to between 1 and 6% depending of the proportion of two year olds that breed. These results clearly show the interactions between uncertainties in different parameters, and suggest that a harvest decision at this stage may be premature without solid data on adult survival and the frequency of breeding by young adults.