The epidemic dynamics of measles are the best understood
among acute infections. Powerful herd immunity leads to a tendency for
multi-annual outbreaks; these are forced mainly by seasonal variations in
infection rates leading to high amplitude cycles and potentially chaotic
dynamics. Though largely eradicated from the developed world through
vaccination, measles remains a significant public health issue in the
developing world. Our analyses of
measles dynamics in the Sahelian nation of Niger show that the combination of
strong seasonal forcing due to the annual rain cycle and exceedingly high birth
rates leads to locally erratic, high amplitude outbreak dynamics with a high
degree of epidemic fade-out. At the national scale, however, measles appears to
persist in regular annual outbreaks.
A weakly coupled metapopulation can lead to persistent dynamics through
rescue effects while maintaining local asynchrony. In Niger, however, strong seasonality due to the annual
rainy season forces synchrony in the timing of epidemic troughs, increasing the
likelihood of metapopulation extinction.
Increased coupling between patches tends to promote metapopulation
persistence under strong seasonality but results in locally annual dynamics and
phase locking. Through analysis of
long-term spatio-temporal data on measles incidence in Niger, we explore how
heterogeneities in coupling can lead to both long-term persistence and
maintenance of locally erratic dynamics.