In grapes the bacterium Xylella
fastidiosa causes Pierce's disease (PD), resulting in leaf scorch symptoms
and vine death. Xylella is vectored
by many species of xylem-feeding insects, the most important of which are
leafhoppers. One of these, the glassy-winged sharpshooter (GWSS; Homalodisca coagulata), is native to the
Southeastern U.S but has become established in California
within the last 15 years. Since GWSS's establishment, devastating PD outbreaks
have occurred in California
vineyards. Therefore GWSS has become the primary focus of research into the
ecological conditions that promote PD outbreaks. The most common explanation
for GWSS's importance is that, unlike native sharpshooters, GWSS is active and
can transmit Xylella to vines
through-out the year (even woody dormant vines), increasing the window for
vine-to-vine spread. However, many of these secondary infections do not persist
over winter, especially those occurring later in the season. Moreover, vector
acquisition rates of Xylella are
expected to vary seasonally. The implications of these seasonal factors for PD
prevalence are not well understood. We used a vectored SI disease simulation
model to clarify the consequences of seasonal vine recovery and vector
acquisition on PD epidemiology. The results suggest that low acquisition rates
early in the season and high recovery rates of late season infections temper
disease outbreaks. However, high rates of pathogen retention (within the
vector) over winter and, especially, high vector densities rapidly swamp out
the ameliorating effects of seasonality. These results are relevant for
evaluating the effectiveness management techniques, such as rouging, and for
pinpointing the windows of vulnerability to chronic secondary disease spread.