Our objective was to develop
a predictive management tool based on land cover composition and structure
variables selected for by State-endangered Prairie Warbler (Dendroica discolor) populations.
Currently, specific land cover composition and structure characteristics of
breeding territories are not adequately understood. To accurately document
variables associated with species presence, point count surveys were used in
2004 and 2005 to locate Prairie Warblers along Michigan's west coast. Each male's territory
was mapped using GPS (n = 41). Vegetation composition and structure were
measured at two nested scales (30m2 and 1m2) within each
territory and in areas where Prairie Warblers were absent. To gain insight into
the appropriate management scale for the species, we compared vegetation
measurements at specific geographic locations with corresponding Landsat (30m2
scale) and 1m2 aerial imagery pixels to determine at which
scale land cover characteristics, identified in our analysis as key for species
presence, can be “seen”. To determine where other territories could exist
(based on identified breeding sites), we are developing a predictive model
using the R statistical program,
ArcView and ArcGIS. Preliminary correspondence analysis shows spatial
separation between species presence and absence locations. Analysis suggests
presence is associated with certain vegetation species and that a combination
of structural variables may be driving habitat selection. Model predictions
will be validated using other 2004-2006 Prairie Warbler location records in Michigan (not used to
develop the model). Current analyses suggest that a large amount of suitable,
yet under-utilized, habitat exists in Michigan
supporting the need for edge of range management considerations.