The debate between niche and neutral models of community
assembly is vigorous and far from settled. Using six years of data (2001-2006)
comprising plant species records within 105 self-contained depressions at Mount St. Helens, Washington,
I examined whether niche or neutral models better predict the characteristics
of these sites. These depressions, which are located on the north flank of the
mountain in an area of severe disturbance as a result of pumice flow, act as
safe-site islands for establishing plants resulting in classic metapopulation structure. This structure, and the
suggestion from earlier research that sites were dispersal limited, suggests
that this may be an appropriate system to test for neutral dynamics. I tested
predictions of extinction and dispersal from MacArthur
and Wilson's
Theory of Island Biogeography as well as Hubbell's Unified Theory of
Biodiversity and Biogeography against predictions of species sorting implicated
by niche assembly. I used Mantel tests to study the relationship between a ecological
distance in a primary matrix of species presence/absence (Sorenson distance)
and Euclidean distance in a secondary matrix containing either soil factors
(pH, organic material, particle size) or UTM coordinates. I found a significant
correlation between distance between plots and ecological distance for all
years, suggesting that dispersal limitation may be an important factor
structuring these sites. R values ranged from 0.125 to 0.247 and P values
ranged from <0.001 to 0.003. Conversely, I found that the relationship
between species presence/absence and soil factors was no greater than that
expected by chance. I will also present the results of analyses testing whether
extinction is related to abundance, site characteristics, and species
characteristics.